After last weeks entertaining card in Colorado, we find ourselves in warmer climes for Fight Night 61 coming to Porto Alegre, Brazil this Sunday night (don't get confused!). The main card gets underway at 1am UK time (Monday morning) on BT Sport with prelims at 11pm. Anyway, here's my preview and predictions for the main card:
Santiago Ponzinibbio (19-2) v Sean Strickland (15-0)
We start in the welterweight division with two fighters looking to move up the ladder. Ponzinnibio comes off the back of an impressive finish of Wendell Marques after disappointing on his Octagon debut, dropping a unanimous decision to Ryan LaFlare. 'El Rasta' came to the UFC with a lot of hype behind him, particularly because of his striking prowess. Strickland isn't averse to striking though, although he has the superior ground game to Ponzinibbio. It'll be interesting to see if 'Tarzan' goes for the takedown, or tries to go toe-to-toe with his opponent.Prediction: Ponzinibbio by unanimous decision
Iuri Alcantara (31-5) v Frankie Saenz (9-2)
Into the bantamweight division we go with Alcantara, riding a three fight win streak, taking on Frankie Saenz. This could be an interesting one. Both have a tendency to finish fights, although you'd give the advantage to Alcantara. Also the fact that the Brazilian has fought ten times for Zuffa promotions against quality opponents (he beat Ricardo Lamas in WEC and had a decision loss against Urijah Faber) cannot be discounted. Sorry Frankie.Prediction: Alcantara by 2nd round TKO
Rustam Khabilov (17-2) v Adriano Martins (26-7)
Lightweight time. This one is simple. If Khabilov gets hold of Martins, he will ragdoll him with ease and wrestle him to death. His takedowns are vicious. Martins only hope is to come out like a house on fire and finish the fight early. The Russian is looking to bounce back after his submission loss to Benson Henderson last time out, while Martins put his most recent loss behind him with an early finish of Juan Puig.Prediction: Khabilov by unanimous decision
Sam Alvey (24-6) v Cezar Ferreira (8-3)
Middleweight time. Alvey has a history of finishing fights with his fists (4 of last 6) while Ferreira has 2 losses by TKO. This one has knockout written all over it. Although the Brazilian has fought the higher calibre of opponent, Alvey has real power in those fists. If even just one catches the jaw of 'Mutante', I think we'll see Alvey swarm and look to finish it early.Prediction: Alvey by 1st round TKO
Edson Barboza (15-2) v Michael Johnson (15-8)
Another lightweight encounter in the co-main event, and this could be a barnstormer. Barboza's striking is top drawer. Be that punches or crippling leg kicks (Rafaello Oliviera anyone?) you don't want to take him on in the stand up. Unless you're Michael Johnson. Although maybe not quite on Barboza's level, Johnson should still be respected. It'll be interesting to see if he tries for the takedown, but he'd be careful to avoid the front kick the Brazilian throws.Prediction: Barboza by 3rd round TKO
Antonio Silva (18-6) v Frank Mir (16-9)
In the main event we have a battle of the heavyweights. The former champion and submission ace Mir, on a four fight skid, takes on 'Bigfoot' who hasn't won in three. This is Mir's first fight in over a year and the first without the use of TRT. It'll be interesting to see how he copes, and if he can manage to get Silva down to the ground. On the ground the big Brazilian is no match for the excellent wrestling of Mir. But I don't think that's how it'll play out. Silva, on his day, can knock out anyone. The destruction of Travis Browne is a prime example. And sometimes he can get finished himself (Arlovski?). But he's never been submitted. Mir doesn't have anywhere near the power to finish 'Bigfoot' on the feet, with only two KO's since 2008. Either way I look at it, I don't think this goes the distance. With both on skids, and the loser potentially being released, they'll both want to put on a great fight.Prediction: Silva by 4th round TKO
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